Q4 2023 valuations at market
Q4 2024 valuations and YTD and performance for various portfolio companies across different verticals, here is a detailed report on each company's quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and year-to-date (YTD) and insights into vertical trends.
Money & Payments
The vertical showed mixed results, with some companies like Plaid and Ripple seeing significant growth, indicating investor confidence in certain business models despite a volatile year.
Look at the performance charts here.
Addepar
It faced a -12 % QoQ decline but maintained a slight 2% YTD growth, suggesting a resilient yearly performance despite a weaker quarter. The year-end news flow was positive.
Kraken
It remained stable QoQ with a -19% YTD decrease, likely reflecting the volatility inherent in the crypto markets. The sentiment is that it will rebound in tandem with digital assets, but it will be hard to see 2021 valuations again.
Plaid
It showed an 83% QoQ surge but a decrease of -18 % YTD, indicating a significant recovery in the last quarter due to illiquidity. The name remains generally better offered.
Ripple
It had a -4 % QoQ and a robust 50% YTD growth, signaling strong annual performance, possibly due to strategic initiatives (buyback tenders) and market positioning (digital assets).
Software and AI
The vertical saw remarkable growth in specific companies like OpenAI, although others like Datarobot faced declines. This suggests a divergence in performance, possibly based on product offerings or market fit.
Look at the performance charts here.
Artsy
Its valuation did not change QoQ and increased by 17% YTD, indicating consistent performance and growth throughout the year, mainly due to a lack of liquidity in the name.
Automation Anywhere
It had a stable QoQ and a -11% YTD, suggesting it faced challenges earlier in the year but stabilized in the latter part. The name remains weak and generally better offered.
Datarobot
It experienced a -29% QoQ and -9% YTD, reflecting possible market corrections or competitive pressures due to new sellers arising. The company still has to catch up with AI fever.
Epic Games
It saw a 2% QoQ and -15% YTD, which might indicate resilience in a volatile gaming industry. The year-end news flow was positive, but the feeling is that it will be hard to see the 2021 valuations again.
Gooddata
It held its valuation steady QoQ and faced a -30 % YTD, possibly due to earlier downturns with stabilization in Q4. The name is very illiquid.
Neuralink
We observed a 12% QoQ increase but a -12 % YTD increase, suggesting a late-year recovery due to the financing round. The name currently has more sellers than buyers.
OpenAI
The best-performing stock this year. It demonstrated remarkable growth with a 67% QoQ and 199% YTD, likely due to breakthrough innovations or increased adoption. The name had virtually no sellers up to the current financing round (Dec 2023).
Rubrik
Despite a recent downturn, it had a -13 % QoQ and a 17% YTD increase, indicating annual growth. This name held quite well against a negative market backdrop.
Logistics & Mobility
The vertical faces challenges, as evidenced by Flexport's significant declines, but with notable exceptions like Natilus.
Look at the performance charts here.
BlaBlaCar
Its valuation decreased by -22% QoQ but grew by 12% YTD, showing annual growth despite a poor last quarter.
Flexport
It encountered a significant -33% QoQ and -47% YTD, suggesting substantial challenges throughout the year, including the ousting of the CEO, fears of recessions, and M&A.
Natilus
It remained stable QoQ with an outstanding 134% YTD increase, pointing to significant developments or achievements in the year. This name remains extremely interesting, though it has not established itself in the secondary because it is in the early stages.
Food & Housing
The vertical appears to have struggled throughout the year, with all listed companies showing a YTD decline.
Look at the performance charts here.
Boxabl
The company faced a -17 % QoQ and a steep 58% YTD decline, likely indicating market challenges or internal issues. A few motivated sellers dominated the secondary market, lowering the bids to current levels.
Impossible Foods
It had a slight -1 % QoQ and -20 % YTD, possibly due to changing market demands or increased doubts that plant-based meat can establish itself as a valuable competitor of traditional proteins.
Instacart
$INSTA experienced a -13% QoQ and -50% YTD, suggesting a difficult year overall, potentially due to competitive pressures or operational challenges. The IPO was not a success. The price is below IPO day. We will cover Instacart until the end of the lock-up period, which will represent the real liquidity event for us.
Energy & Defense
The vertical remained stable, with NewCleo maintaining a steady position and Anduril and SpaceX showing growth, indicating positive reception to advancements or operations in this sector.
Look at the performance charts here.
Anduril
It has benefited from renewed investors’ interest in the sector and has had a successful funding round. It shows positive secondary performance, with 3% QoQ and 4% YTD.
NewCleo
It showed stability with 0% changes in both QoQ and YTD, which could indicate a steady market position or controlled growth. NewCleo was busy with a large capital raise of 1 billion euros, which is still underway.
SpaceX
The 2nd best-performing stock in our portfolio. It had a positive 12% QoQ and 12% YTD, demonstrating consistent growth throughout the year, possibly due to successful launches or contracts.
Look at the performance charts here.
What is IPO CLUB
We are a club of Investors with a barbell strategy: very early and late-stage investments. We leverage our experience to select investments in the world’s most promising companies.
Disclaimer
Private companies carry inherent risks and may not be suitable for all investors. The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Always conduct thorough research and seek professional financial guidance before making investment decisions.
